Given that Donald J. Trump winning the U.S. presidency has been deemed one of the top 10 risks facing the world, should there be a “Donald Trump Presidency Insurance”?
By: Ringo Bones
American billionaire, reality show host and current U.S. Republican Party’s U.S. presidential candidate Donald J. Trump has just been deemed as one of the top 10 risks facing the world, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit or EIU. The research firm warns that Mr. Trump could disrupt the global economy and further heighten political and security risks in the United States. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not expect Mr. Trump to defeat Hillary Clinton who it sees as “his most likely Democratic contender.”
The Economist Intelligence Unit rates a Donald J. Trump presidency riskier than Britain leaving the European Union or an armed conflict in the South China Sea. According to the EIU, the events it sees are more dangerous than a Trump presidency are Mainland China encountering an economic “hard landing” or sharp economic slowdown and Russia’s interventions in Ukraine and Syria that could reignite a “New Cold War”. “Thus far, Mr. Trump has given very few details of his policies – and these tend to be prone to constant revision,” the EIU said in its global risk assessment, which looks at impact and probability. The EIU ranking uses a scale of one to 25, with Mr. Trump garnering a rating of 12, the same level of risk as “the rising threat of Jihadi Terrorism destabilizing the global economy.”
Given Lloyd’s of London’s willingness to underwrite unique risks whose adequate actuarial figures of probability are not available – i.e. damage to dancers’ legs, rain-outs of public events and even the appearance of the Loch Ness Monster – it seems that Lloyd’s would probably be issuing a Donald Trump Presidency Insurance policy anytime soon. And the Economist Intelligence Unit already has the pertinent probability figures to please Lloyd’s “actuarial pool”.